Cut, Gut, and Git Before the Heat is On

by William McGuire

As I sat dozing on the deck, on an unusually balmy 60-degree day in the second week of November, my thoughts turned to an aspect of the Foster/Syme development that should be more openly addressed, one that they are blithely ignoring in their headlong rush to "enhance" our community with a new semi-private ski resort. The question is not only one of whether it is wanted or needed, but whether it will even be viable once it is up and running. Mother Nature-- and our gluttony for fossil fuels-- may have other plans. 

I was struck by the comment made by Otis Wollen of the Placer County Water Agency at the recent water rights meeting hosted by the DSAA. The average snow line, he said, has risen a thousand feet in the last twenty years. This startling revelation accorded with my own experience as a long-time habitue of the Summit: deep snow packs used to be a commonplace at Cisco Grove, but in recent years the snow line during winter storms is routinely 6,000 to 6,500 feet. 

Researchers at the University of California are predicting a significant reduction in the snow pack by the end of the century, somewhere on the order of 70-90%. By that time, most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain. While this will have serious statewide implications, particularly for the water supply, it will also quite likely put Summit ski resorts out of business. 

Be that as it may, Foster/Syme might say, but it is a century away, and we might as well enjoy what snow sport there is until then. Well, not so fast-- or should I say warming is happening too fast. Researchers are seeing signs of an accelerating global warming trend, as their recent surprise and alarm at the rapid disappearance of Arctic ice will attest. They are also apprehensive about a number of positive feedback loops that will contribute to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. For example, the permafrost in the vast northern tundra is thawing, and in the process will release huge amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide and which, of course, will speed the thawing of the permafrost. And as the oceans warm, cold-water plankton, an important source of carbon sequestration, will begin to disappear. Will we, as a global community, manage to curtail our fossil fuel use in time to offset these accelerating loops? Not likely, unfortunately. In fact, the International Energy Agency recently reported that world energy needs "will grow inexorably," and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions may rise by more than 50% by 2030, a growth mostly fueled by growing Asian economies and their heavy dependence on coal. 

So back to the Summit. If one extrapolates Mr. Wollen's comment about the rising snow line into the future, and assuming-- as growing evidence suggests-- that warming will likely accelerate in the coming years, then it appears the University of California estimate is too conservative. At the very least, one can expect the snow line to have risen another thousand feet by 2025, making ski operations on the Summit an untenable enterprise, even with expensive and water-intensive snow making. For those of us who chose Serene Lakes because of its proximity to snow play, this is depressing news. 

And while we are making assumptions, let's say Foster/Syme eventually get their way and break ground in five years, after a lengthy EIR process and the inevitable court challenges. According to their investor's prospectus, build-out will take eight years. So we can assume thirteen years before their resort is fully operational. After they have made their money and run back to their mansions in Incline Village, will there be enough snow for their dubious initiative to survive? Will Serene Lakes be saddled with an unsightly mass of rusting ski lifts and empty condos? It is something for us, and Placer County, to think about.